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Tracking the tropical system in the Gulf

20 June 2017

A tropical disturbance sparked by a broad band of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean now has a 90 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the Windward Islands. This system is not expected to play any direct role at all in our weather at any point in the next several days. Another system to the east may beat it and become a named storm later today. The reason for the low confidence forecast as of now is because of numerous differences in reliable forecast models on where it will eventually track. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Southern Windward Islands & the coast of Venezuela due to the potential of tropical storm force conditions.

"We are, regardless of the track, expecting quite a bit of rain potentially out of this system", National Weather Service meteorologist Mark Wool said.

Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are now expected over the Windward Islands Monday through Wednesday. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic also has an increasing chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

There is a likelihood that a tropical storm could develop in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

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Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly through this storm on Monday, if necessary. We are going to leave rain chances in the forecast for these days and the greatest coverage of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

The agency is also monitoring another disturbance that is now being labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three.

The next name on the list is Bret.

This portion of the Atlantic Basin is an unusual spot for tropical development this early in the season.